Welcome back to college basketball season in 2024!

I have returned from a long awaited absence to release my current tournament field based off of the 2024 season through two months of play. The Webb Index took a much needed hiatus after Purdue once again embarrassed themselves in the tournament, and sent TWI’s founder into a college basketball depression. But now it is the start of new year and a new season, and we will rise from the ashes like a phoenix and make a triumphant return. Unfortunately, I will likely just hurt again (sad). Also, Mr. November (Matt Painter) should have been fired years ago, but I digress.

Conference play is just starting to heat up, but there is already a field of dangerous teams emerging hungry for deep runs come March.

In this breakdown, I want to highlight teams who so far have surprised me, disappointed me, and puzzled me throughout the season, as well as reveal TWI’s current tournament bracket. An obvious reminder that we are still three months away from March Madness, and things can and will change drastically by then.

Most Surprising Teams

South Carolina Gamecocks

Holy smokes the SEC is deep this season. They have the depth to get around 8-10 teams into the bracket, and the biggest surprise of them all has been South Carolina.

The Gamecocks were voted to finish dead last in the preseason SEC, even behind the perennially bad Vanderbilt, which is the ultimate sign of disrespect. To be fair, last season South Carolina went a dreadful 11-21 and had a shocking 4-14 record in conference play.

This year they have been shot out of a cannon as they began the season winning their first seven games, which included wins against a scrappy VTech team, a strange Notre Dame team and a certifiably underrated mid-major Grand Canyon. They are sitting currently at 13-1 and suffered their only defeat against a solid Clemson squad, who in their own right probably deserve more recognition on this segment than they will end up getting.

The play style of the Gamecocks is an interesting one, as they are one of the slowest moving teams in the country, ranking 321st out of 362 Division 1 teams in pace of play. However, they have an elite offense, as they rank 43rd in the country in overall offensive efficiency. The play of Ohio St. transfer Meechie Johnson has been one of the main reasons for that impressive ranking, as he adds 18 PPG and has the ability to shoot from anywhere on the court.

The transfer portal came through massively for this team as well, as this offseason they got senior forward BJ Mack from Wofford, sharpshooting senior guard Myles Stute from Vandy, and senior point guard Ta’Lon Cooper from Minnesota. The Gamecocks went from one of the most inexperienced teams in the country last year to one of the most experienced this year.

BJ Mack is the perfect compliment to Johnson, as he is a 6’8, 250 pound tank in the paint who also has the ability to stretch the floor. Slowing down the game and surrounding Mack with shooters in the half-court game has been effective so far, and could help get South Carolina their first tournament bid since 2017 (when they made the Final Four). It will be a brutal run through SEC conference play, but I think this may be the year we see the Gamecocks back on the big stage.

Mountain West Depth

Throughout the 2023 season, I was constantly a hater of the Mountain West conference. San Diego St. making a run all the way to the National Championship game gave me a bit more respect for the conference as a whole, and this year the overall depth is something I did not expect in the slightest coming in.

The Colorado St. Rams lead the pack, as they are 13-2 currently and have climbed as high as #13 in the AP poll. With wins over Creighton, Colorado and Washington in non-conference matchups, they are primed for a decent seed come March. And with four players averaging over 12 PPG, they absolutely have the scoring ability to make a deep run.

The aforementioned San Diego St. Aztecs bring back a ton of experience from last year’s magical runner up squad, and they have not shown signs that they intend to do anything differently this year. They are also 13-2 at the moment, and the emergence of Jaedon Ledee as one of the best players in the country has been the most surprising aspect. He is averaging 21.5 PPG, which is 9th best in the country, and will be a massive factor to how the remainder of their season plays out.

Three other Mountain West teams currently have shockingly strong cases for at-large bids. The Utah St. Aggies are 14-1, the Nevada Wolfpack are also 14-1 and the New Mexico Lobos are 13-2. Now obviously with conference play upcoming, the road will get much bumpier for everyone, but it will be interesting to see if the committee would allow five bids to a historically not well-respected conference.

At this moment in time, I would argue they all deserve a shot.

Purdue Boilermakers

Yeah, yeah, yeah, this will probably seem pretty biased. 

However, Purdue has looked like the best team in the country and has been deservedly ranked #1 for the majority of the season. They have four wins against teams ranked in the AP Poll Top 10, which is two more wins than any one else in that category in the country. They are currently 14-1, with their only loss coming at the hands of Northwestern, which was puzzling and will not be brought up again.

Zach Edey seems as if he is getting 20 and 15 every game, and is on pace to be an easy candidate for Player of the Year, but it has been the guard play that has elevated the Boilers.

Braden Smith is looking like the best point guard in the Big Ten, as his sophomore jump is one of the most impressive in the country. He has increased his averages to 13 PPG, 7 APG, 5.5 RPG, 2 SPG and shooting 48% from 3, after averaging less than 10 PPG last year and he was constantly dared to shoot. Fellow sophomore Fletcher Loyer has had a solid start to the year too, although inconsistent at times. The other massive change for the Boilers in the offseason was bringing in a grad-transfer guard in from the portal. Lance Jones came in from Southern Illinois in the off-season, and he has been a revelation for the young boilers due to his experience and his ability to get downhill on drives. With Loyer mostly an outside threat and Smith running the offense, that was the key aspect missing from the Boilers game, and he has fit perfectly in their offense as if he is the last piece in a puzzle.

Now all of this goes with saying that I expect nothing less than an early exit in March for Purdue, but right now they are easily one of the best teams in the country. Prove me wrong Mr. November.

Most Disappointing Teams

USC Trojans

USC started the year in the Preseason AP Poll at #21, and peaked at #16 early in the year, and that was mostly due to the highly regarded recruiting class that is led by 5-star recruit Isaiah Collier and nepo baby Bronny James. Bronny has just started to play in the last few games, as he is recovering from a scary heart issue. Collier has been decent, averaging 15 PPG, but the Trojans have tumbled to 8-7 record to begin the year.

With bad losses to UC Irvine, Long Beach St. and Oregon St. I do not see a clear path back to the tournament field without a drastic turnaround. Possibly Bronny could go god-mode and activate such a run, but until then I do not like the Trojan’s chances. With a weaker Pac-12 conference this year, they will also have less chances at getting good wins, but also have ample chances to accrue more bad losses. The two matchups they have with Arizona are key fixtures, but I will likely bet against them in both games.

Michigan Wolverines

Although Michigan was picked to finish 11th in the Big Ten Preseason voting, with the start to the season they have had I absolutely see them as a major disappointment. The Wolverines are currently sitting at 6-8, with bad losses to Long Beach St., Mcneese (sounds like a made up school), and most recently Minnesota. To be fair, they have the 25th ranked Strength of Schedule so far, but the problem is that the schedule does not get any easier upcoming, as they face top ten teams in Illinois and Purdue this month.

Sophomore guard Dug “Duggy McBuckets” McDaniel and Tennessee transfer forward Olivier Nkamhoua are averaging 18 PPG and 17 PPG respectively, but other than that this Michigan roster is light on scoring potential. Senior and perennial role player Terrance Williams has been forced into a more prominent role this season, and the team has seen diminishing returns because of that. Possibly the return to full-time head coaching for Juwan Howard could spark a Wolverine run, but I would be shocked if they are above .500 come March.

I didn’t expect them to be great, but I also didn’t expect them to be the worst team in the Big Ten. Phil Martelli you have let me down.

Most Confusing Teams

FAU Owls

The definition of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde in college basketball.

The FAU Owls went 35-4 last year as they led the country in overall wins and made a darling run to the Final Four, and even had to be eliminated on a last second heave at the buzzer. When the core of the team and coach Dusty May decided to all run it back, I thought the Owls may not lose a game all season. They return over 90% of their scoring from a year ago, including all-conference and March Madness heroes Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin, who to be fair have played well this year, but the team as been ultimately inconsistent.

I believe on any given night FAU could lose to anybody. They have losses to Bryant, Florida Golf Coast and Charlotte. For any other team in the American Conference, those three losses would be enough to sink their hopes at any sort of NCAA Tournament bid, but for the Owls they seem to be only speed bumps towards another cinderella run.

I believe on any given night FAU can beat anyone in the country. They have had a rigourous non-conference schedule, ranking 20th toughest in Strength of Schedule, and have had multiple opportunities for Quad 1 wins to help boost their resume. They have wins over Butler, Texas A&M, VTech, Liberty, St. Bonaventure and most impressively a double overtime thriller against Arizona.

When the owls shoot it well from 3, they have the ability to compete with the best, and for what it is worth, I think if they get a good draw again come March they have more than enough to go all the way in 2024.

Florida St. Seminoles

I cannot decide on whether Florida St. is very bad team or just a decent team in the ACC. It nearly seems at times that they lose the games you would expect them to win and win the games you would expect them to lose.

With their offensive efficiency ranked 175th and their defensive efficiency ranked 115th they are right in the middle of the pack when it comes to overall play. They have balanced scoring and regularly play around 9-10 guys a night. The problem is they lose to bad teams, as the Seminoles suffered losses to South Florida, SMU and Lipscomb.

However, they have started off conference play with two wins against decent enough squads in Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, and had an early season victory against a good Colorado team.

Leonard Hamilton will always have his team well coached on the defensive end, but if the Seminoles are able to find more efficient scoring options, they could have a shot at playing in Dayton come tourney time.

The Official Webb Index

Tournament Seeding as of 01/07/2024

1 Seeds: Houston, Purdue, Kansas, Uconn

2 Seeds: Zona, Kentucky, Carolina, Tennessee 

3 Seeds: Illinois, Memphis, Marquette, Clemson

4 Seeds: Miami, Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado St.

5 Seeds: Baylor, Duke, Wisconsin, San Diego St.

6 Seeds: Auburn, South Carolina, FAU, Ole Miss

7 Seeds: Dayton, Creighton, Ohio St., Gonzaga

8 Seeds: Colorado, Providence, TCU, BYU

9 Seeds: Bama, James Madison, Utah St., Texas Tech

10 Seeds: NC St., Virginia, Texas A&M, Utah

11 Seeds: Nevada, Northwestern

Last Four In: New Mexico, Iowa St., Nebraska, Wake Forest

First Four Out: Florida, Indiana, Seton Hall, Michigan St.

Next Four Out: Cincy, Syracuse, Butler, Minnesota

Next Next Four Out: Pitt, Mississippi St., Nova, Oregon

Conference Breakdown

Big 12 – 9

SEC – 7

Big Ten – 6

ACC – 6

Mountain West – 5

Big East – 4

PAC-12 – 3

American – 2

January 7, 2024. Kody Webb. khapworldwidewebb.com